As Korea’s exports break all-time monthly records, attention is already focusing on the scale of this year’s annual export volume. The government assesses that, with the semiconductor supercycle turning out stronger than expected and competition in artificial intelligence (AI) investment among U.S. big tech companies intensifying, the country is now within striking distance of achieving exports of USD 900 billion for the first time and entering the global top five in exports. In the market, some analysts forecast that if the current momentum continues in the second half of the year (July–December), annual exports could reach as high as USD 1 trillion.

According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) on the 1st, cumulative exports for January–May this year came to USD 394.225 billion, up 43.4% from the same period a year earlier and the highest ever for that period. At the start of the year, the government set an annual export target of USD 740 billion, 4.3% higher than last year, and by the end of May more than half (53.3%) of that target had already been achieved.

The trade surplus is also at a record level. As of May, the trade surplus for the year to date exceeded USD 100 billion, surpassing the previous full-year record of USD 95.2 billion set in 2017 in less than half a year.

The government expects annual exports this year to exceed USD 900 billion for the first time on record. At a recent press briefing, MOTIE Minister Kim Jung-kwan said, “There are variables, so we are cautious, but exports this year could exceed USD 900 billion,” adding, “Achieving a top-five export position is also possible.” The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET), a state-affiliated think tank, projected in its recently released “Second-Half Economic and Industrial Outlook” that Korea’s exports will reach USD 924.4 billion this year.

If the government’s projection materializes, Korea is likely to overtake Hong Kong, Japan and Italy to enter fifth place in global exports. Last year, Korea’s annual exports amounted to USD 709.3 billion, ranking eighth worldwide. The top four exporters last year were China, the United States, Germany and the Netherlands.

There are even rosy expectations that annual exports could surpass USD 1 trillion. Meritz Securities forecast that Korea’s exports this year will reach USD 1.02 trillion. This would be enough to overtake the Netherlands, the world’s fourth-largest exporter last year, whose exports stood at USD 964.1 billion.

However, the concentration of export growth in semiconductors and a few large corporations is cited as a challenge. Last month, semiconductor exports accounted for 42.3% of total exports. This is nearly 20 percentage points higher than during the previous semiconductor supercycle in 2018, when the share was in the mid-to-high 20% range. The fruits of export growth are being concentrated in a small number of companies. In the first quarter of this year (January–March), the top five exporters, including Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, accounted for 43.5% of total exports, up 14.8 percentage points from 28.7% in the same period a year earlier.

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