《4300→4400→4500… KOSPI breaks ceiling three days in a row

The KOSPI has surpassed 4,500 for the first time in history. On expectations of earnings improvement led by the semiconductor sector, it has risen 311.31 points (7.4%) over the first three trading days of the new year. Samsung Electronics, the top company by market capitalization, maintained the “KRW 1.3 million Samsung” level for a second day, while SK hynix climbed to the “KRW 700,000 hynix” level. With the index advancing by hundreds of points each day in a sustained rally, the KOSPI will reach an unprecedented 5,000 level if it gains roughly another 10%.》

The KOSPI has surpassed 4,500 for the first time. Since the start of the year, it has strengthened for three consecutive trading days, raising the index “floor” each day. There are 475 points (10.5%) left to reach KOSPI 5,000. Hanmi Semiconductor has surged 44.2% over the first three trading days of the year, recording the largest gain among KOSPI-listed companies. Mirae Asset Securities, whose stake in Elon Musk’s space startup SpaceX has risen to more than three times its original investment value, has gained 22.9% so far this year.

However, some caution that the upward trend could stall if actual earnings improvements fall short of expectations. There is also analysis that the market’s rise could slow or enter a correction phase due to the burden of short-term overheating in the stock market.

● Falling KOSPI reverses on concentrated individual buying

On the 6th, the KOSPI closed at 4,525.48, up 67.96 points (1.52%) from the previous trading day. Based on the closing price, it surpassed 4,300 on the 2nd, broke through 4,400 on the 5th, and then climbed above 4,500 on this day. The index was driven higher by individual investors, who recorded net purchases of KRW 596.3 billion. Foreign investors, who had net bought more than KRW 2 trillion the previous day, turned to net sellers with KRW 630.2 billion in net sales. Institutions also recorded net sales of KRW 66.6 billion.

On this day, the KOSPI opened lower than the previous session’s close and at one point in the morning fell below the 4,400 level. However, as individuals began concentrated buying, the index reversed to gains in the afternoon and extended its advance. Individuals alone net bought KRW 1.4032 trillion worth of Samsung Electronics shares, turning the stock, which had shown weakness in the morning, to a higher close. Samsung Electronics rose during the session to as high as KRW 1,402,00, and finished at KRW 1,389,00, up 0.58% from the previous trading day.

SK hynix, which had shown weakness early in the session, closed at KRW 726,000, up 4.31%, as foreign investors’ buying concentrated in the stock. This is an all-time high. Although foreigners were net sellers overall on the KOSPI on this day, they bought KRW 227.1 billion worth of SK hynix shares.

Shares of HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, which announced it had won a KRW 1.5 trillion order to build four liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, rose 7.21%, exemplifying the strength in large-cap stocks. In addition, all of the top 10 companies by market capitalization, including Hyundai Motor (up 1.15%) and Doosan Enerbility (up 3.25%), closed higher.

● Brokerages raise outlook, some up to 5,200

As the KOSPI’s strong performance continued through the first three trading days of the new year, it now has 474.52 points (10.5%) remaining to reach the 5,000 level. Not only Samsung Electronics and SK hynix but also semiconductor materials, components, and equipment companies are seeing strong share prices. This is because semiconductor earnings, which drove the market last year, are expected to remain positive this year and next.

With geopolitical risks rising following the U.S. air strike on Venezuela, share prices of defense companies such as Korea Aerospace Industries (up 19.0%) and LIG Nex1 (up 17.6%) are also climbing.

As expectations for corporate earnings grow, securities firms have begun raising their KOSPI targets for this year. Kiwoom Securities has revised this year’s annual KOSPI range upward to “3,900–5,200.” It projects that the KOSPI could rise to as high as 5,200 this year. Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, explained, “The essence of the continued strength in the KOSPI at the start of the year is foreign fund flows and earnings momentum.”

Daishin Securities also forecast that the KOSPI could reach 5,000 as early as the first quarter of this year (January–March). Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, projected, “If expectations for earnings improvement materialize faster than expected and net profit forecasts are revised upward, market levels could rise quickly.” Jeong Yong-taek, a researcher at IBK Investment & Securities, noted, “If Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are excluded, the KOSPI’s gains are significantly reduced,” and added, “If the earnings and outlook to be announced soon by these two companies fail to meet expectations, the strong upward trend could lose steam.”

Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 average and Taiwan’s Taiex also both set new record highs on the day. AI and semiconductor-related stocks such as Hitachi in Japan (+7.44%) and TSMC in Taiwan (+2.26%) were strong.

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