The full-fledged semiconductor “super cycle” (period of ultra-boom) is beginning, and a series of forecasts are emerging that the combined operating profit of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix next year will approach KRW 200 trillion. Since December, major securities firms have been successively raising their operating profit forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix for next year.

According to the securities industry on the 14th, Kiwoom Securities raised its 2026 consolidated operating profit forecast for Samsung Electronics to KRW 107.6120 trillion. This is 29.3% higher than the existing market consensus (the average of securities firms’ estimates over the past three months) of KRW 83.2420 trillion. iM Securities lifted its consolidated operating profit forecast for SK hynix for the same period to KRW 93.8430 trillion. When the most optimistic projections are combined, the two companies’ operating profit exceeds KRW 200 trillion.

● Forecast of “KRW 200 trillion operating profit”…DRAM is the top contributor

The memory semiconductor market, including commodity DRAM, is currently experiencing a deepening supply shortage as supply fails to keep up with demand, driving prices sharply higher. Aggressive memory procurement by cloud service providers that are building AI data centers has had a major impact. According to market research firm DRAMeXchange, the average price of mainstream PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8) in November was USD 8.1, six times higher than in January this year (USD 1.35).

Against this backdrop, the securities industry’s attention is focused on Samsung Electronics. Among the three global memory majors, including SK hynix and US-based Micron, Samsung Electronics has the largest production volume, and DRAM also accounts for a high proportion of its revenue. LS Securities stated, “While competitors are facing a shortage of fab (plant) space next year, Samsung Electronics has sufficient space to expand DRAM production,” adding, “There is also room for further earnings upgrades depending on memory prices.”

For SK hynix, where additional production is difficult, there is an assessment that profitability improvement will stand out. Hyundai Motor Securities projected, “With prices of commodity DRAM also surging, SK hynix is highly likely to record the highest profitability among global DRAM manufacturers.”

● Expectations of diversified HBM customers

The backdrop to the “record-breaking” earnings outlook for Korean memory semiconductor companies also includes the issue of global big tech companies developing customized AI chips in-house. As the application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) market expands to reduce dependence on Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs), demand for HBM produced by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is expected to increase significantly.

Google’s tensor processing unit (TPU) is a representative example. TPU is an AI chip responsible for training and running Google’s AI model “Gemini 3.” OpenAI has also embarked on developing its own AI chips. Amazon Web Services (AWS) has developed “Trainium 3,” and Microsoft will launch its AI chip “Maia 200” next year.

Park Yoo-ak, senior research fellow at Kiwoom Securities, stated, “Samsung Electronics, which has secured ASIC makers as major customers, will see its HBM shipment volume in 2026 increase to more than three times this year’s level,” adding, “In the first quarter (January–March) of next year, HBM sales applied to major ASIC chips will rise sharply, and in the second quarter, shipments of HBM4 to be mounted on Nvidia’s ‘Rubin’ will begin in earnest.”

Popular News