The 'semiconductor top two' have propelled KOSPI to an unprecedented level. This year, KOSPI has been driven by sectors such as shipbuilding, defense, beauty, finance, and holding companies, but this month, it succeeded in breaking through 3,600 with the power of semiconductors backed by artificial intelligence (AI).

As a shortage of memory semiconductors is anticipated in the global AI competition, which is seeing astronomical investments, some predict that the upward phase is just beginning. According to the Korea Exchange on the 10th, Samsung Electronics' stock price has risen by 77.4% and SK Hynix's by 146.1% this year. Samsung Electronics surpassed a market capitalization of KRW 600 trillion (including preferred shares), and SK Hynix exceeded KRW 300 trillion. The two companies account for 31.3% of KOSPI.


● Impact of Global AI Tailwinds

The surge of Korean semiconductor companies is influenced by the global AI investment frenzy. During the Chuseok holiday break, NVIDIA, a leading AI semiconductor company, hit a record high of $192.57, with its market capitalization growing to $4.6794 trillion (approximately KRW 6,651 trillion). The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security approved NVIDIA's export of AI semiconductors to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), raising expectations that major investors from the Middle East will join the AI investment war.

AMD, a competitor of NVIDIA, also surged by 41.4% over four trading days. This was due to OpenAI, the operator of ChatGPT, announcing a contract to supply AI semiconductors from AMD. Samsung Electronics supplies high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to AMD, indicating a cooperative relationship.

The continuation of massive AI investments has not only affected advanced semiconductors like HBM but also led to a shortage of general-purpose memory semiconductors such as DRAM and NAND flash, impacting semiconductor prices. A notable example is when Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, who visited Korea on the 1st, requested a supply of 900,000 wafers of DRAM per month. This amount is estimated to be about 75% of the production capacity of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The combination of memory supply shortages, resulting price increases, and large-scale investments suggests an upward phase is anticipated.

Global investment bank Morgan Stanley also released a report titled 'Resurgence' on the 8th, predicting a semiconductor supercycle. It raised the target stock prices of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to KRW 111,000 and KRW 480,000, respectively. This is a stark contrast to Morgan Stanley's previous warnings of a downturn for Korean semiconductor companies, which earned it the nickname 'semiconductor grim reaper' with reports like 'Winter is Coming' (September last year) and 'The Iceberg is Coming' (April this year).

Domestic securities firms have also started raising their target stock prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. As of the 10th, Korea Investment & Securities presented the highest forecast with targets of 'KRW 120,000 for Samsung Electronics' and 'KRW 560,000 for SK Hynix'.


● Concerns Over AI Bubble Amid Continued Speculation

However, the situation where 'bubble theory' is being raised amid the global AI rally is a burden. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JPMorgan Chase, expressed significant concern about the possibility of a severe adjustment in an interview with the BBC on the 9th, stating, "I am much more worried than others," and warned, "AI is real and will deliver results in aggregate, but not all companies will be able to achieve results." Previously, Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Bank of England (BOE) have also expressed concerns about stock market overvaluation.

Additionally, the concentration on semiconductors and high exchange rates are also cited as concerns. On this day, the stock prices of battery companies such as LG Energy Solution fell due to disappointment over Tesla's new car announcement (―9.9%), and defense stocks weakened due to news of a Middle East ceasefire. Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, explained, "The won-dollar exchange rate exceeding KRW 1,420 is a variable. If foreigners start selling when the won turns strong, the upward trend may be dampened," and added, "Companies also need to deliver results that meet expectations."

Popular News