Buoyed by a super-boom in semiconductors, export value in the first 10 days of July reached a record high. As the semiconductor boom is expected to continue into the second half of the year (July–December), expectations are rising that annual exports could reach USD 1 trillion.

According to the “Export-Import Trends” released by the Korea Customs Service on the 13th, export value for 1–10 July was USD 29.839 billion, up 53.9% from a year earlier. This is the largest amount ever recorded for the 1st–10th of any month, 4.4% higher than the previous record set last month (USD 28.581 billion). With the number of working days unchanged from last year at 8.5 days, average daily exports came to USD 3.51 billion, up 53.9% year-on-year.

Semiconductors are also playing a pivotal role in exports in the second half. Semiconductor exports for 1–10 July surged 193.0% from a year earlier to a record USD 11.207 billion. Their share in total exports rose by 17.8 percentage points to 37.6%. Around 70% of the total increase in exports came from semiconductors. A simple calculation based on Korea Customs Service figures indicates that the trade balance for all items excluding semiconductors shows a deficit of about USD 1.29 billion.

Supported by growing demand for solid-state drives (SSDs) for artificial intelligence (AI) servers, exports of computer peripherals and wireless communication devices increased by 208.1% and 92.4%, respectively. Ship and petroleum product exports also rose by 75.1% and 22.7%, respectively. By country, exports to China and Vietnam expanded by 88.7% and 92.8%, respectively, while exports to the United States grew by 43.2%.

During the same period, imports rose 17.4% to USD 23.48 billion. However, as exports significantly outpaced imports, the trade balance posted a surplus of USD 6.359 billion.

Earlier, June exports came to USD 102.25 billion, surpassing USD 100 billion for the first time on record. Applying to this month’s figures the share that exports in the 1st–10th accounted for in the total for last month, some analysts project that July exports will again exceed USD 100 billion. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, however, is not optimistic about reaching USD 100 billion, noting that in June export clearances were concentrated at the quarter-end and that early-month statistics do not sufficiently reflect day-of-week effects.

Cumulative exports from the beginning of the year through the 10th of this month totaled USD 526.187 billion, up 48.6% from the same period last year, already surpassing USD 500 billion. If the semiconductor boom continues and annual exports reach USD 1 trillion, Korea will overtake the Netherlands (USD 989 billion), which ranked fourth globally in exports last year.

The Bank of Korea also projected that the expansion phase of the semiconductor cycle will continue for a considerable period. In a written response submitted the same day to Rep. Park Sung-hoon of the People Power Party, the central bank stated, “Demand for semiconductors has increased sharply due to AI infrastructure investment, while the pace of supply expansion is slower,” adding, “The current semiconductor cycle is showing a strong upward trend that far surpasses past expansion phases. The expansion is expected to continue for a considerable period.”

Some observers voice concern over the growing dependence on semiconductors. Yang Jun-seok, professor of economics at the Catholic University of Korea, said, “If semiconductor prices or demand change, the risk that total exports will be severely shaken also increases. Investment should also be expanded in other sectors that are relatively vulnerable but have growth potential.”

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